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9 September 2024
Arizona historically has had the reputation of being a ‘transplant’ state—meaning a person dares to live in a place that is hotter than the sun and quickly bounces. It turns out that Arizona is actually one of the stickiest states! A report conducted by the Dallas Fed in 2021 found that 71.5% of native-born residents still lived in Arizona, which ties it with Michigan in the top 10 ‘stickiest’ states.
In contrast, the least sticky states have much lower retention rates, often around 50%. Wyoming, which has the lowest retention rate, saw an out-migration percentage of over 60% in 2021. The bottom 10 states, in terms of stickiness, show little regional overlap.
The concept of “stickiness,” measured by the percentage of native-born residents still living in their home state, can reflect broader economic conditions. States with higher stickiness often have favorable economic environments, abundant job opportunities, reasonable housing costs, and lower tax burdens. The Dallas Fed’s report, based on American Community Survey data, shows that stickiness is influenced by various factors, including weather, economic stability, and the presence of major population centers.
Interestingly, while warmer climates might explain the higher rankings for states like Arizona, California, and Florida, this is not the sole factor. States like Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with less appealing weather, also make the list of stickiest states. Furthermore, the presence of major metropolitan areas appears to contribute to higher stickiness; the five stickiest states collectively boast 15 metro areas with populations of over 1 million.
Arizona’s growing economic opportunities, particularly in Phoenix’s tech sector, have contributed to its increasing stickiness. Despite being labeled a transplant state, Arizona’s economic vitality and lower tax burden (ranked 17th lowest overall) have encouraged many to put down roots. However, housing affordability remains a mixed bag. Although affordable housing has traditionally driven growth, recent data shows Arizona’s median home price at $443,000—the 16th highest in the U.S.—and the average rent at $1,619, ranking 21st highest, according to Bankrate.com and RentCafe.
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